As the golf world moves on from Augusta and Rory McIlroy’s historic completion of the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters, focus now turns to Quail Hollow in Charlotte, the site of this year’s PGA Championship. With the tournament just around the corner, the race to predict potential champions intensifies. Headliners like McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler top the list of favorites, but major championships often defy expectations. Drawing on data-driven projections from the trusted SportsLine model—which recently forecasted Masters winners—we break down who’s most likely to thrive or falter at Quail Hollow, offering key insights for fans and bettors navigating the season’s second major.
Rory McIlroy: Momentum Meets Opportunity
Rory McIlroy’s recent Masters victory completed a storied career milestone—the career Grand Slam—and significantly alleviated the pressure he has felt over a decade-long major drought. This liberation may prove transformative at Quail Hollow, where McIlroy has historically excelled. He’s already a five-time major champion, including two PGA Championships, but the last of those came more than ten years ago.
McIlroy’s current form, however, places him unequivocally as the best golfer on tour in 2025, with three victories this season already—more than anyone else. Quail Hollow itself suits his game ideally. McIlroy has won four Wells Fargo Championships on this course, setting course records with rounds of 62 and 61.
Yet, skepticism remains justified. McIlroy finished only 22nd when Quail Hollow last hosted a major, and has failed to secure a top-five finish at the PGA Championship over his past ten attempts. His challenge at Quail Hollow, despite past success, will test whether his Masters win has truly rekindled his championship fire or if it simply relieved pressure temporarily.
Scottie Scheffler: Uncertain but Undeniable Potential
Scottie Scheffler enters the PGA Championship with compelling yet complicated prospects. Despite missing the early part of the season due to hand surgery, Scheffler swiftly reasserted himself, achieving six top-ten finishes in just nine starts. He recently captured his first win of 2025, indicating he is regaining his competitive sharpness. However, lingering doubts about his short game persist.
After ranking 17th in strokes gained around-the-green in 2024, he’s dropped significantly this year to 92nd. This decline could pose critical problems at Quail Hollow, known for its demanding greens and challenging scrambling requirements.
Moreover, historical context adds caution. Scheffler struggled noticeably during the 2022 Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow, recording the lowest point total on the winning U.S. team. His subsequent absence from tournaments hosted at the course in 2023 and 2024 further clouds his prospects. Yet, despite these caveats, Scheffler’s consistency elsewhere—particularly at Augusta, where he finished fourth this year—reinforces his contender status. FanDuel Sportsbook has his odds at +450 suggesting expectations remain high, though his weaknesses must improve for him to triumph.
Xander Schauffele: Champion’s Challenge
Last year’s PGA champion, Xander Schauffele, faces a markedly different narrative heading into the 2025 Championship. Following a breakthrough at last year’s PGA and subsequent Open Championship victory, expectations surged. Yet, 2025 has seen Schauffele grapple with injury setbacks and inconsistencies. Early in the season, a rib injury sidelined him for two months, severely affecting his momentum.
Currently, he ranks alarmingly low in driving accuracy (158th) and strokes gained off the tee (162nd), crucial statistics on a course as demanding as Quail Hollow. Additionally, Schauffele ranks outside the top 150 in scrambling and scoring average, further diminishing his odds of repeating his major success.
While Schauffele’s resilience saw him manage a top-eight finish at Augusta, his game remains far from its peak. The SportsLine model notably forecasts Schauffele barely cracking the top ten at Quail Hollow. For a defending champion priced at +1900, this prediction should temper expectations, especially for bettors anticipating another heroic finish.
Potential Surprises: Aberg, Cantlay, and Zalatoris
Though favorites usually draw attention, the PGA Championship historically rewards unexpected champions—like Schauffele himself last year. Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Ludvig Aberg emerge as intriguing dark horses. Aberg notably sits at +1900, alongside Schauffele, reflecting market confidence despite limited major championship success thus far.
His recent top-ten finishes at Augusta and ball-striking capabilities suggest he could outperform expectations. Cantlay and Hovland similarly offer strong value, priced at +4400 and +3400, respectively. Both are talented enough to contend, especially given Hovland’s proven ball-striking prowess and Cantlay’s consistent all-around game.
Conversely, former sensation Will Zalatoris finds himself struggling mightily, missing three consecutive major cuts and sitting as a +4600 outsider. His early promise of major success has faded significantly. Yet, his past near-misses at majors may still encourage speculative interest from bettors seeking high-risk value.
Betting Insights from the SportsLine Model
The SportsLine model, developed by DFS expert Mike McClure, significantly shapes the betting narrative heading into Quail Hollow. Having accurately predicted winners of 14 major championships—including the last four Masters—it now highlights valuable betting insights. For instance, the model notably warns against heavily backing Schauffele. Instead, it emphasizes players like McIlroy and Scheffler, despite their respective vulnerabilities, due to their consistent statistical output and historic potential at major championships.
Furthermore, the model identifies four longshot players (each with odds exceeding +2000) likely to contend significantly—intriguing underdogs who could disrupt expectations. These insights offer bettors compelling opportunities beyond the leading favorites, reinforcing the importance of considering broader statistical and analytical models when predicting golf outcomes.
Navigating the Unpredictability of Quail Hollow
As the 2025 PGA Championship approaches, golf’s unpredictability remains front and center. McIlroy’s momentum, Scheffler’s volatility, and Schauffele’s struggles all underscore how quickly fortunes can shift. In this uncertain landscape, the SportsLine model offers valuable insights to help bettors and fans anticipate potential surprises and spot hidden value before the first tee at Quail Hollow.
